Thoughts, Late Pick 4, and 10K Lakes Stakes

It appears that a beautiful evening's on tap for the season opener at a place that's becoming the crown jewel of thoroughbred racing in the Upper Midwest. This year Canterbury will have the lowest blended takeout % of any track in the United States. Canterbury, unlike many of the tracks in it's peer group, has done a wonderful job of marketing the on track experience and has made their product desirable to the novice fan, families, and everyone else from young to old. Although the on track experience is lively these folks typically don't push a ton a money through the windows (it's more about the experience, having a good time, and maybe a couple of beers). The lower takeout (when many tracks are going the other way) has created some nice publicity and should make the product more desirable to the off track gamblers bolstering overall handle. Horse racing is nearly a year around hobby for me. One of the most frustrating things (with this game) is the lack of voice, appreciation, and respect given to those putting dollars through the window. I hope the folks in simulcast land make their voices heard with dollars this season at Canterbury. This is an opportunity to show other tracks that lower takeout %'s and taking input from the horse player can be a healthy and sustainable business plan.

Here are a few thoughts on the late Pick 4 and the opening night stake race.

Race 5

Best of the Bleu’s is a first timer for Barry and Joni Butzow. The Butzow’s generally select nice MN bred horses and have been formidable owners at Canterbury over the years. They call on Joe Sharp to train who I’ve heard nothing but great things about. Sharp doesn’t light it up with first timers but I like that they had this one shipped to Fair Grounds where he’s been working for a couple of months and should have a solid foundation for his debut. If pounded down from the 8-1 ML watch out!

Bar Fight looks like a logical favorite based on his 2015 form but like many others in here he’s going out for a trainer who’s a block of ice. Last summer he took money on debut and didn’t break. He shipped down to Remington where he faced tougher non restricted MSW’s and ran some game races. Any of the Remington efforts should send him to the winners circle here. 

I’ll use #2 Darrenator and #7 Richard Thomas as outsiders on the late Pick 4 ticket.

Race 6

True West goes out for Broberg who has in creditable numbers in these situations. 34% wins from a large sample when he takes from other trainers. 33% wins off the long layoff and 25% wins off the drop in class. Only two posted works on the tab might be a bit alarming but he’s not facing a very tough group here.

 Minnesota Outlaw has been racing steadily since the beginning of the year against non-restricted maiden claimers. He’s getting tons of class relief in this spot and most of his 6 career efforts are probably good enough to win here. The top jockey (on the grounds) Canchari takes the call.

Race 7 – 10,000 Lakes Stakes

The first stake race of the 16’ meet is for MN bred colts and geldings going 6 furlongs on the dirt.

 A P Is Loose he’s a MN bred fan favorite and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bet down significantly from the 6/1 ML. A P is Loose closed out 2015 running a huge race at 1 mile and 1/16^th flying by my 2^nd choice Hold for More. A P is Loose has done a fair amount of routing and seems logically placed cutting back to the sprint to start the 2016 campaign. He should still show speed and be close to a moderate to soft pace which figures to be set by Hold for More and Speed Is Life.

 Hold for More ran a bang up race in defeat to close out his 2015 season losing 3 ½ length to the top choice A P Is Loose. Hold for More came off the bench last year with a very respectable win and the way he finished the 2015 season maybe suggests he was just getting good. I'll go ahead and assume he’ll continue his improvement at 4 years old. He’s 3 for 3 going 6 furlongs and has never been worse than 2^nd in 8 career starts. 

 Bourbon County like A P Is Loose he’s a MN bred fan favorite and figures to go off as the favorite unless money is pouring in from off track sources. I’m a big fan of this horse but couldn’t be more against him here. Rake Farms suggested they missed a start at Tampa Bay Downs when his race didn’t fill and Canterbury Hall of Famer Bernell Rhone isn’t who I want off long layoffs. When you look back to 14’ Bourbon County came straight off the bench into this race and ran 2^nd to a nice, but far inferior, MN Bred Speakfromyourheart. In 15’ he entered this race 2^nd off the layoff and beat Speed Is Life, also in this race off the long layoff, by open lengths. It’s noteworthy that Bourbon County and Rhone’s normal rider Dean Bulter finds himself on the ML 2^nd choice Hold for More.

Race 8

Big Man Stan has been going 2 turns and cuts back to a sprint for the first time in a long time for a trainer who hits at 18% with that angle. He gets a rider upgrade and probably faces easier here than what he’s been up against in Texas.

Law Dog ran a bang up race in his 33^rd career start traveling well over “fast” dirt for the first time in his career. We’ll see if he can take them gate to wire from the inside post.

In the Pick 4 I’ll also use  #6 Hard Nine who’s run a couple nice races after coming off a short layoff and the consistent #7 Saturday’s Light.

Race 5 Late Pick 4: 2,7,9,11 with 1,2 with 2,4,6 with 1,4,6,7 for $48

Good Luck!